{"id":10834,"date":"2020-07-31T07:58:07","date_gmt":"2020-07-31T07:58:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/?p=10834"},"modified":"2020-07-31T07:58:07","modified_gmt":"2020-07-31T07:58:07","slug":"how-bad-can-the-asset-quality-get-bfsi-news-et-bfsi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/?p=10834","title":{"rendered":"How bad can the asset quality get?, BFSI News, ET BFSI"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div>In its latest Financial Stability Report for July 2020, the <a href=\"https:\/\/bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/tag\/rbi\">RBI<\/a> warned that the <a href=\"https:\/\/bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/tag\/asset+quality\">asset quality<\/a> of the financial system could deteriorate sharply, caused by the lockdown-induced disruptions to both supply- and demand-side factors. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cMacro stress tests for credit risk indicate that the GNPA ratio of all SCBs may increase from 8.5% in March 2020 to 12.5% by March 2021 under the baseline scenario; the ratio may escalate to 14.7% under a very severely stressed scenario,\u201d the report read. <\/p>\n<p>It is difficult to accurately assertion the exact nature of the six-month loan moratorium on the quality of <a href=\"https:\/\/bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/banking\">banking<\/a> asset. But the stress tests conducted indicate that the GNPA ratio of all SCBs (scheduled commercial banks) may increase from 8.5% in March 2020 to 12.5% by March 2021 under the baseline scenario (see chart below). However, if the macroeconomic environment worsens further, the ratio may escalate to 14.7% the regulator indicated.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Projection of SCBs\u2019 GNPA ratios\" aria-label=\"chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-47y7s\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/47y7s\/2\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"500\"><\/iframe><br \/>\u201cAmong the bank groups, PSBs\u2019 GNPA ratio of 11.3% in March 2020 may increase to 15.2% by March 2021 under the baseline scenario; the GNPA ratio of PVBs (private sector banks) and FBs (foreign banks) may increase from 4.2% and 2.3% to 7.3% and 3.9%, respectively, over the same period,\u201d it added. <\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a look at the asset quality of some banks as on June 30, 2020: <\/p>\n<p><b>Kotak Mahindra Bank\u2019s<\/b> asset quality during the quarter deteriorated with GNPA at 2.70% as against 2.25% QoQ. The net NPA was around 0.87% as against 0.71% QoQ. Naturally, the slippages in Q1FY21 was as high as Rs 796 crore from Rs 491 crore QoQ. <\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Kotak Mahindra Bank\u00a0\" aria-label=\"chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-lbe3y\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/lbe3y\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"><\/iframe><br \/><b><a href=\"https:\/\/bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/tag\/axis+bank\">Axis Bank<\/a>\u2019s<\/b> asset quality improved during the quarter with GNPA and NNPA ratios at 4.72% and 1.23%, compared to 4.86% and 1.56% in Q4FY20. Slippages were Rs 2218 crore as against Rs 3920 crore QoQ, out of which corporate slippages were Rs 1355 crore.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Axis Bank \" aria-label=\"chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-uvgjS\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/uvgjS\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"><\/iframe><b><br \/>ICICI Bank\u2019s<\/b> asset quality improved with GNPA at Rs 5.46% as opposed to 5.53% in Q4FY20; and NNPA at 1.23% versus 1.41% QoQ. The slippages during the quarter were around Rs 1160 crore while the recovery and upgrades were Rs 757 crore.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"ICICI Bank\" aria-label=\"chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-IMghp\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/IMghp\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"><\/iframe><br \/><b><a href=\"https:\/\/bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/tag\/hdfc+bank\">HDFC Bank<\/a>\u2019s<\/b> asset quality was slightly affected. GNPA increased to 1.36% as against 1.26% QoQ while the NNPA was at 0.33% versus 0.36% in Q$FY20. Slippages were Rs 3100 crore as against Rs 3150 crore QoQ. <\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"HDFC Bank\" aria-label=\"chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-Buqkw\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Buqkw\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"><\/iframe><br \/><b><a href=\"https:\/\/bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/tag\/yes+bank\">Yes Bank<\/a>\u2019s<\/b> asset quality didn\u2019t show much improvement. The GNPA was at 17.30% against 16.80% in Q4FY20. The NNPA was around 4.96%versus 5.03% last quarter. Slippages for the quarter were Rs 45 crore as against Rs 439 crore QoQ.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Yes Bank\" aria-label=\"chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-oetFh\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/oetFh\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"><\/iframe><br \/><b>Real picture awaited <\/b><br \/>The regulatory moratorium may be holding back some stress, hence, the assets quality for the top five private lenders didn&#8217;t see much variance in Q1FY21. The results were broadly in line with market expectation but their balance sheets are yet to feel the impact of India\u2019s strict lockdown measures on real economy. <\/p>\n<p>RBI\u2019s FSR noted that the industry-wise composition of good quality loans (i.e., standard advances which have not yet turned into SMA; and SMA-0 loans) of PSBs (public sector banks) and PVBs reveals that some of the industries (NBFCs; real estate, electricity generators) with higher share of moratorium across bank groups are severely affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Hence, a meaningful short-term recovery might be unlikely, as the rise in fresh COVID-19 cases continues to threaten the gradual reopening of the economy. The survey pointed to all major risk group &#8212; global risks, macroeconomic risks, financial market risks &#8212; that could affect the financial system as high. However, risks to domestic growth and fiscal deficit within the macroeconomic risks were perceived to be very high. This might have a significant impact on the earnings of the banking industry driving them towards capital raise not only to support business growth but also likely slippages in asset quality. <br \/><b><br \/>Capital buffers<\/b><br \/>To strengthen their balance sheet and capital positions, many Indian banks have announced capital raising plans. While this is going to be a challenging time for the <a href=\"https:\/\/bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/tag\/banking+sector\">banking sector<\/a>, the private banks who have just announced their Q1FY21 results may be able to raise the money given their overall comfortable financial profile. But PSBs\u2019 plans to raise capital from market sources will not be sufficient to provide capital cushion to the anticipated risks unless supplemented with additional capital support from the government.<\/p>\n<p>Banks\u2019 exposure to stressed sectors, loan-loss cover and pre-provision earnings determine the urgency of their capital requirements, which is more pronounced for state-run banks. Many PSBs may just be able to meet minimum regulatory capital ratio thresholds under moderate stress.<\/p>\n<p>Fitch in its July 2020 Indian Bank Stress Test Dashboard noted that fresh equity injections were significantly more imperative as economic recovery remains shaky due to continued acceleration in new coronavirus cases.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRecent warnings from the central bank governor and the absence of fresh state capital support have prodded many large state banks to consider raising their own funds although the amounts planned are lower than their private counterparts. State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda and Canara plan to raise up to $6 billion in total, adding about 100-150bp to their CET1 ratios even as execution risk remains high due to depressed equity valuations,\u201d said Fitch Ratings. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async defer crossorigin=\"anonymous\" src=\"https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/sdk.js#xfbml=1&#038;version=v4.0\"><\/script><script>\n  !function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)\n  {if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?\n  n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};\n  if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0';\n  n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;\n  t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];\n  s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script',\n  'https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/fbevents.js');\n  fbq('init', '905994023094530');\n  fbq('track', 'PageView');\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\\\"https:\/\/bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/banking\/77243517?utm_source=RSS&#038;utm_medium=ETRSS\\\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In its latest Financial Stability Report for July 2020, the RBI warned that the asset quality of the financial system could deteriorate sharply, caused by the lockdown-induced disruptions to both supply- and demand-side factors. \u201cMacro stress tests for credit risk indicate that the GNPA ratio of all SCBs may increase [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10835,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10834","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking-business"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/banking-sector-stress-how-bad-can-the-asset-quality-get.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10834","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10834"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10834\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10835"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bengalnewstimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}