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TUESDAY, Nov. 24, 2020 (HealthDay News)<\/p>\n
The number of confirmed COVID-19<\/a> cases in the United States is likely to nearly double before President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, researchers warn.<\/p>\n Cases could rise from 11.4 million to 20 million by the end of January, according to a study published Nov. 23 in the journal Scientific Reports<\/em>. Of course, counts vary day to day — as of Tuesday, for example, there were 12.4 million cases of COVID nationwide, according to Johns Hopkins University.<\/p>\n For the new study, researchers from Washington University in St. Louis developed a model that had accurately predicted the rate of COVID-19<\/a> growth in the United States over the summer.<\/p>\n “One of the key reasons for the increased accuracy of this model over other COVID-19<\/a> forecasts is that this model accounts for the fact that people live in interconnected social networks rather than interacting mostly with random groups of strangers,” said study co-author Raphael Thomadsen, a marketing professor.<\/p>\n “This allows the model to forecast that growth will not continue at exponential rates for long periods of time, as classic COVID-19<\/a> forecasts predict,” he added in a university news release.<\/p>\n The model shows how different levels of social distancing affect the spread of COVID-19<\/a>. The prediction of 20 million cases before January’s end is based on current social distancing measures, which reflect a 60% return to normalcy.<\/p>\n “Even small increases in social distancing can have a large effect on the number of cases we observe in the next two and a half months,” Thomadsen said. Resuming a 50% return to normalcy — the average level of distancing in early August — could result in 5 million fewer cases by January’s end.<\/p>\n “We could effectively squash out the COVID growth within a few weeks if we went back to the levels of social distancing we experienced in April,” he said.<\/p>\n The researchers also noted that due to increased testing and the upcoming holidays, their model may underestimate end-of-January cases.<\/p>\n “In our model, we assume that only 10% of cases are ever diagnosed, meaning that we will start to hit saturation,” said study co-author Song Yao, an associate professor of marketing.<\/p>\n “However, more recently, testing has increased, and probably more like 25% of cases are diagnosed. In that case, total COVID cases would increase beyond 20 million in the next few months unless we, as a society, engage in more social distancing,” he added.<\/p>\n The upcoming holidays will present great uncertainty to the outlook as people travel more at the end of the year, said co-author Meng Liu, an assistant professor of marketing. This can increase the potential for more cases, and “will likely make our forecast an optimistic one,” she added.<\/p>\n More information<\/strong><\/p>\n The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention<\/a> explains how to protect yourself and others from COVID-19<\/a>.<\/p>\n SOURCE: Washington University in St. Louis, news release, Nov. 20, 2020<\/p>\n Robert Preidt<\/p>\n <\/p><\/div>\n![\"MedicalNews\"](\"https:\/\/images.medicinenet.com\/images\/HealthDay\/healthday.png\")
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